When we talk about Pickering’s future, the conversation often centres on one solution: more development. But another economic opportunity deserves much more consideration — agriculture and the broader agri-food economy.

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Agriculture will not solve all of Pickering’s financial, infrastructure, housing or employment challenges, nor should it replace responsible development. What we need is a more balanced approach that recognizes the value of agriculture, permanent employment, commercial and industrial development, and responsible residential growth. A strong agricultural sector can generate economic activity, employment and tax-base diversification without requiring the same pattern of urban expansion and infrastructure servicing associated with new residential development.

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Development Does Not Pay for Everything

There is an important distinction between saying developers contribute toward growth-related infrastructure and saying development pays for all of the costs it creates. Development charges help fund a portion of growth-related capital infrastructure, but they do not cover every cost of growth, nor do they pay municipal operating costs or the future repair and replacement of infrastructure. Municipal taxpayers remain responsible for costs that are not recovered through development charges, along with the long-term operation and maintenance of roads, water systems, stormwater infrastructure, parks, facilities and other services.

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Therefore, the question cannot simply be: How much revenue will this development generate? We also need to ask: What will this development cost the municipality over its entire lifecycle? The issue is not whether development is good or bad. It is whether the economic return is sufficient to justify the full public cost of that growth.

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We Need to Diversify Pickering’s Economic Base

For years, municipalities have relied heavily on residential growth to expand their tax base. But more homes also mean more people requiring municipal services. A financially resilient municipality needs more than residential assessment. It needs permanent employment, commercial activity, industrial investment and a diversified tax base. This is where agriculture becomes particularly interesting. The economic value does not stop at the farm gate.

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Agriculture is much more than farmers growing crops or raising livestock. A productive agricultural sector supports an entire value chain: Farm → Processing → Manufacturing → Transportation → Warehousing → Wholesale → Retail → Restaurants → Food Services.

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The Multiplier Effect of Agriculture

Farmers purchase seed, equipment, fuel, fertilizer, repairs, insurance, professional services and transportation. Food processors employ production workers, mechanics, electricians, engineers, accountants, transportation workers, warehouse employees and managers. Retailers, restaurants, logistics companies and other businesses all participate in the same economic ecosystem. This is the multiplier effect of agriculture.

 

Measuring agriculture only by farm-gate receipts therefore understates its broader economic contribution. Ontario’s agriculture and food economy represents approximately $51 billion in GDP and more than 871,000 jobs, extending well beyond primary agriculture into food and beverage manufacturing, wholesale, retail and food services. Durham Region also has approximately 1,200 farms, demonstrating that agriculture remains an important component of our regional economy. Agriculture is not simply an industry that produces food. It can be the foundation for an entire economic ecosystem.

 

What Could This Mean for Pickering?

Pickering has an unusual advantage: we are part of one of Canada’s largest metropolitan economic regions while still possessing significant agricultural land and being immediately beside one of the country’s largest consumer markets. Rather than viewing agricultural land simply as land waiting to be converted to another use, we should ask what could happen if some of that land became the foundation for a stronger local and regional agri-food economy.

Opportunities could include:

• agricultural production;

• food processing and manufacturing;

• agricultural technology;

• greenhouses and controlled-environment agriculture;

• food distribution and logistics;

• value-added agricultural products;

• farm-to-market businesses;

• agritourism;

• agricultural research and innovation; and

• businesses supporting the agricultural sector.

 

These activities can create permanent employment and commercial and industrial assessment while allowing agricultural land to remain productive.

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The Pickering Federal Lands: A Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity

There may be no better example than the future of the Pickering Federal Lands.

In January 2025, the Government of Canada announced that the lands would no longer be required for a future airport. Approximately 9,300 acres remain under federal ownership. The City of Pickering has subsequently recommended protecting more than 7,500 acres, including more than 6,500 acres for agricultural use, while identifying approximately 1,900 acres for strategic employment opportunities.

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These lands should not be viewed simply as property that could eventually be sold. They represent a potential federal agricultural and economic asset for generations to come. Imagine measuring their value not only by what they could be worth if sold today, but by what they could contribute over the next 50 or 100 years.

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A Federal Agricultural Asset Beside Canada’s Largest Urban Market

These lands sit beside the Greater Toronto Area and within close proximity to one of Canada’s largest food markets.

This creates a significant opportunity to preserve productive economic capacity while strengthening food production, food processing, transportation, manufacturing and other businesses throughout Pickering, Durham and the GTA. This is bigger than simply preserving farmland. It is about preserving productive economic capacity.

 

Agriculture and Employment Can Work Together

We do not have to choose between agriculture and employment. The City’s analysis of the federal lands identifies approximately 1,900 acres for strategic employment opportunities, with an estimated $3.7 billion in investment, approximately $244 million in upfront revenues and approximately $18 million in annual tax revenues. Employment lands can strengthen Pickering’s commercial and industrial tax base while agricultural lands provide the foundation for a broader agri-food economy. Processing, manufacturing, transportation and logistics can connect the two. That is economic diversification.

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Employment Close to Home

Pickering residents should not have to leave the community every morning to find employment elsewhere.

Creating more permanent employment opportunities closer to home can reduce commuting pressures while strengthening the local economy. The goal should not simply be to build more places for people to live. We should also be building an economy that gives people more reasons to work here.

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A Different Kind of Municipal Tax Base

If Pickering wants to reduce its dependence on residential property taxation, we need more commercial and industrial assessment. The potential $18 million in annual commercial and industrial tax revenue identified in the City’s federal-lands analysis illustrates what employment-focused development can contribute. Agriculture can complement this through processing, manufacturing, transportation, distribution, technology and other agri-food businesses.

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The objective should be: More economic activity, more permanent employment, more commercial and industrial assessment, more diversified municipal revenue and less dependence on residential growth alone.

 

Protecting Agricultural Land Is an Economic Decision

Protecting agricultural land is often presented as an environmental or food-security issue. It is both of those things — but it is also an economic-development decision. Once productive agricultural land is converted to urban use, that productive capacity is extremely difficult to recover. Residential development can generate property-tax revenue, but it also creates permanent municipal obligations for roads, water, wastewater, stormwater, parks, recreation, emergency services and other infrastructure.

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A productive agricultural landscape can continue generating economic activity while remaining available for food production. The question Pickering should be asking is: What provides the strongest long-term economic value and return on public investment?

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A Long-Term Economic Strategy for Pickering

I am not suggesting Pickering should stop developing, nor that agriculture can solve all our municipal challenges.

I am suggesting that we need to broaden our definition of economic development.

We should ask whether the growth we pursue:

• creates sustainable, permanent employment;

• expands commercial and industrial assessment;

• makes responsible use of existing infrastructure;

• provides a reasonable long-term return on public investment;

• strengthens local businesses;

• reduces unnecessary commuting;

• protects valuable agricultural resources;

• strengthens food security;

• supports local and regional supply chains; and

• improves Pickering’s long-term financial resilience.

 

Agriculture cannot accomplish all of these things by itself. But a strong agricultural and agri-food sector can contribute to many of them. And the Pickering Federal Lands give us an extraordinary opportunity to demonstrate what that could look like.

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Agriculture and Responsible Development

Pickering can continue to grow while protecting productive agricultural land. We can pursue permanent employment while strengthening our food economy. Agriculture will not solve all of Pickering’s problems, but if we recognize its full economic value — from the farm gate through

processing, manufacturing, transportation, retail and services — it can be one important step toward a more diversified, resilient and financially sustainable Pickering.

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The question is not simply what we can build today, it should be what kind of economic foundation we want to leave for Pickering tomorrow.

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James Blair

Candidate of City of Pickering Ward 1

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